Economist's Commentary: July 24, 2008
Quick Take on the Economy: July 24, 2008
By Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist
Existing Home Sales
- Home sales and prices fell in June. Read more in detail here.
Unemployment Insurance
- The number of first-time filers for unemployment insurance rose significantly in the latest week. A total of 406,000 new filers showed, up from 372,000 the week before.
- However, the number of people continuing to receive unemployment checks declined for the second straight week to 3.11 million, down from 3.20 million just two weeks ago.
- Though job cuts are occurring, job gains must also be occurring for the total continuing claims to fall.
What does today's data mean for REALTORS® and consumers?
- Home sales continue to search for bottom. However, housing stimulus bill that will soon become law will help begin the recovery process.
- First-time homebuyers can get up to $7,500 in tax reduction from simply buying a home by July of 2009. The money will be applied to taxes owed. If tax owed is less than $7,500, then the homebuyer will get the difference in direct cash tax refund.
Daily Forecast Update
- NAR's monthly official forecast as of July 8th (250K PDF)
- GDP Q2: 1.7%
- GDP Q3: 1.9%
- Unemployment rate by election time: 5.8%
- Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in December: 6.6%
- Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate by mid-2009: 6.7%
- The next Fed policy change: a rate hike in December 2008
This is one in a series of commentaries by the Research staff of the National Association of REALTORS®. Read more commentaries >
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